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Chance of an encounter

Anything above Terinyo, to the right of Terinyo, or both, will not produce encounters. Otherwise, by terrain type:

Encounter rate by terrain
Water 0%
Swamp 18%
Road 15%
Plains 7.5%
Hills 5%
Mountains 3.5%
Forests 2%

If you are Doomed, multiply by 5. If you are merely cursed (not doomed), multiply by 3. This is your chance per step of an encounter. Movement speed has no effect.

What will you meet?

If you have talked to Tywat Pare, no raider lords have been killed this game, are no higher than level 5 and have no more than 5000 experience, you have a 1 in 4 chance of the encounter being with Kranach, regardless of terrain.

Kranach quest encounter
Name Ct 1 Monster 1 Ct 2 Monster 2 Ct 3 Monster 3 Ct 4 Monster 4 Escape Escape 2
a group of roving raiders 1 raider lord 3d4 raider 1d2 goblin 1d3 kobold 50% 90%

Otherwise, if you are at least level 25, you have a 1 in 6 chance of meeting an encounter from the high level set. These are all equally likely regardless of terrain.

High level encounters
Name Ct 1 Monster 1 Ct 2 Monster 2 Ct 3 Monster 3 Ct 4 Monster 4 Escape Escape 2
a lone corruptor 1 corruptor 20% 75%
an entourage of chaos knights 2d2 chaos knight 4d4 chaos plague bearer 1d6+2 chaos servant 50% 80%
a group of horribly deformed beings 2d4 chaos mutant 50% 90%
a dark hooded figure 1 chaos wizard 30% 60%
a lone knight surrounded by an aura of hate and fear 1 chaos warlord 50% 85%
a black unicorn 1 black unicorn 50% 50%
an ogre army 1 ogre emperor 3d3 ogre lord 2d2 ogre magus 10d6 ogre 40% 40%
a herd of rust monsters 1d2 giant rust monster 2d2 large rust monster 2d6 rust monster 20% 50%
a quickling raiding party 1d3 quickling lord 2d4 quickling 15% 15%

Otherwise, if you are at least level 15, you have a 1 in 3 chance of meeting a group from the mid-level set. This set is subdivided into partitions of 2; the partitions are respectively for forest, hills, plains, roads, mountains, and swamps; randomly choose within each partition.

Mid-level encounters
Name Ct 1 Monster 1 Ct 2 Monster 2 Ct 3 Monster 3 Ct 4 Monster 4 Escape Escape 2
a giant boar 1 giant boar 30% 90%
a wandering giant 1 fomorian giant 90% 95%
a hunting party of hill giants 2d3 hill giant 1d3-2 hill giant chieftain 50% 95%
a party of assassins 5d4 assassin 0% 90%
a horrible Dorn Beast 1 Dorn Beast 80% 95%
a wild air elemental 1 air elemental 30% 95%
a party of assassins 5d5 assassin 0% 95%
a gnoll war party 10d6 gnoll 10d3 large gnoll 1d4 gnoll chieftain 70% 95%
a warband of stone giants 2d4 stone giant 1d3-2 stone giant lord 45% 95%
a lone red dragon 1 red dragon 80% 20%
a horde of plague bearers 4d4 chaos plague bearer 60% 95%
a lone black dragon 1 black dragon 60% 10%

Otherwise, the encounter will be from the low-level set. This is partitioned and chosen exactly like the midlevel set, except with partitions of 4.

Low-level encounters
Name Ct 1 Monster 1 Ct 2 Monster 2 Ct 3 Monster 3 Ct 4 Monster 4 Escape Escape 2
an orcish patrol 3d4 orc 1d2+1 orc scorcher 1d2-1 orc chieftain 35% 85%
a group of bandits 4d3 bandit 1d2 outlaw 30% 90%
a wandering brown bear 1 brown bear 70% 98%
a huge grizzly bear 1 grizzly bear 40% 85%
a pack of wolves 4d4 wolf 1d4 dire wolf 25% 55%
a hill orc patrol 3d3 hill orc 2d2 hill orc sergeant 35% 70%
an outlaw band 2d4 outlaw 30% 90%
a wandering wizard 1 black wizard 80% 50%
a large jackal pack 8d4 jackal 1d6-4 jackalwere 20% 80%
a hobgoblin patrol 3d3 hobgoblin 1d2 hobgoblin leader 1d6-3 hobgoblin chief 40% 95%
a roving barbarian group 4d3 barbarian 1d3 barbarian leader 65% 90%
a pack of wild dogs 4d3 large dog 30% 90%
a group of outlaws 2d4 outlaw 1d2 outlaw leader 20% 95%
a pilgrimage of chaos monks 6 chaos brother 6 chaos sister 75% 95%
a skeleton patrol 1d40+6 skeleton 30% 90%
a lone necromancer 1 necromancer 50% 90%
a lone stone giant 1 stone giant 75% 95%
a gnoll warband 4d4 gnoll 2d4 large gnoll 1d2 gnoll chieftain 70% 95%
a cave bear 1 cave bear 60% 95%
a pack of cave lions 2d2 cave lion 30% 90%
a horde of lizard men 5d3 lizard man 1d3 cave lizard 40% 90%
a group of lost souls 3d3 zombie 2d4 ghul 1d3 wight 1d2-1 wraith 15% 50%
a horde of huge frogs 3d3 giant frog 50% 95%
a lone hydra 1 swamp hydra 65% 95%

Will I escape?

First you might be ambushed. You cannot be ambushed if you are invisible (regardless of the encounter monsters), if pass a Perception-1 in 100 roll, if you pass a 150 difficulty Alertness check, if you are a level 6 druid or a level 25 merchant (undocumented ability), or if you have the Scout talent and pass a 1 in 10 roll. Even if you meet none of those requirements, monsters only have a 1 in 30 ambush chance. They get an additional 1 in 15 if you are Cursed and a 1 in 8 on top of that if Doomed, for a combined ambush chance of 21% if cursed and doomed. If this happens, tough luck - you can't escape and the monsters start next to you, so no shooting.

Next, you get the chance to sneak. You successfully sneak (Stealth + Survival) times in 1000 tries. If you are invisible, you will successfully sneak an additional 500 - XL * 10 times (yes, XL hurts you here). Successful sneaking increases escape chances and allows you to spring an ambush of your own.

If you choose to ambush, a variable is increased by 50 times your Stealth skill and 30 times your Survival skill; this is probably the amount monsters are surprised in some way. If you fight or ambush, things end here.

You have five checks to escape an encounter. Only one of them needs to pass.

First, if you are a level 6 druid or level 25 ranger, you escape automatically.

Next, the encounter's first Escape number is a flat chance of escape. This chance is tripled if you made a successful sneak.

Next, if you are invisible, you get a chance to escape of the encounter's second Escape number. No tripling here.

Next, you escape if you make a successful Stealth check. The difficulty of this check is 200 minus the lesser of the escape numbers.

Next, you can escape automatically 1/3 of the time with the Scout talent.

If you fail all that, you have to fight. Sorry!